Understanding Odds and Probability

lens

Poker Communist
 
 
 
Mar 26, 2025
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Odds and probability are important in poker. Learning how to calculate odds and probability will make you better at the table. Mastering some basic questions like “what are the odds of getting a specific hand, and how do probabilities change your chances of winning?” Should come first. Mastering these concepts will put your poker game over the top.
 
I remember certain odds, and percentages to help me make decisions when I play. I mostly keep a memory of flush draw, and straight draw percentages if you have a draw post-flop. It's also important to have a basic understanding of outs in poker if you want to dig deeper in to the math side of poker. All this information can help your game, but relying on purely math can also make you predictable, mix it up. Here's the odds of hitting a flush or straight after the flop using AI. Key things to remember you have roughly a 35% to make a flush if you flop a flush draw, and 32% chance to hit a straight if you flop a open-ended straight draw.

Flush Draw after Flop:
You have 4 cards of the same suit, and need one more of that suit to make a flush.

  • Probability of Hitting on the Turn or River:
    With a flush draw after the flop, you have a 35% chance of completing the flush by the river.
  • Odds:
    This translates to approximately 1.86-to-1 odds against completing the flush.
  • Other Considerations:
    The odds of hitting a flush on the flop itself are much lower, around 0.8%.

Open-ended Straight Draw:
This refers to a hand where you need one of two cards (one on either side of your two cards) to complete a straight.
  • Outs:
    In this scenario, you have 8 outs (the two cards on either side of your two cards).
    • 8 outs * 2 = 16% chance of hitting on the turn (the card after the flop).
    • 8 outs * 4 = 32% chance of hitting by the river (turn and river).
Other Straight Draw Types:
  • Inside Straight Draw: This is a hand where you need one card in the middle of your two cards to complete a straight. You have 4 outs, so the chance of hitting by the river is roughly 16%.
 
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Odds and probability are important in poker. Learning how to calculate odds and probability will make you better at the table. Mastering some basic questions like “what are the odds of getting a specific hand, and how do probabilities change your chances of winning?” Should come first. Mastering these concepts will put your poker game over the top.
A gambler is likely to make more money in gambling if he understands probability. Probability is the bedrock of odds. Presently, am trying to figure out how i can be able to use probability to breakthrough the matrix of bookmarkers!
 
It boggles my mind how these brainiacs use math to beat Vegas etc.. But even if you could do that, you'd have to back away sometimes, because too much winning angers the house.
 
It boggles my mind how these brainiacs use math to beat Vegas etc.. But even if you could do that, you'd have to back away sometimes, because too much winning angers the house.
I think i will love to make them very angry at least to revenge for uncountable times they have cash out from me!